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First QuarterThe Kings Are Dead … Long Live the King
It appears that for the first time in the nine-season College Football Playoff era, we may stage one with neither Alabama (1) nor Clemson (2). They have been the two dominant brands of the CFP’s previous eight years: The Crimson Tide made the bracket seven times and won three national titles; the Tigers have made it six times and won it all twice. Now, after both were upset Saturday, they’re on the outside looking in, needing a lot of help to change their circumstances.
But today there are bigger questions looming over both programs: Is their window of dominance closing? Is the heyday over? Is this the inevitable beginning of the inevitable end for a pair of dynasties?
Foolhardy as it might be to declare the demise of coaches with the stature of Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney, there are reasons to suspect they’ve reached a tipping point.
Of course, this is relative to program standards that are set absurdly high. Conference championships, Playoff berths and national championships are the expectation, and massive resources have been committed to attaining those goals at both schools. What could be considered slipping at Alabama and Clemson would be dream seasons almost everywhere else.
But nothing lasts forever, and both already have exceeded historical norms—nobody has sustained a run like Saban’s 14 seasons from 2008 to ’21, and few can match what Swinney accomplished from ’15 to ’20. Plus, just look at the product on the field.
For Alabama (7–2), two losses by a total of four points on the road against 8–1 Tennessee and 7–2 LSU is hardly a disaster. It could be argued that the Tide are two plays away from being undefeated. But it also could be argued that they are two plays away from being 5–4 after narrow escapes against Texas and Texas A&M. Split the difference in four 50–50 games and Bama probably has the record it deserves at this point.
The fact is this is the earliest the Tide have been (logically) eliminated from the Playoff race. The only other time Alabama missed the field, in 2019, the final blow came in the Iron Bowl against Auburn after a mid-November injury knocked out Tua Tagovailoa and left the season in the hands of then untested Mac Jones.
This season is tracking similarly to the 2010 Alabama team, which went 9–3 in the regular season and had its second loss to LSU in early November. That team is Saban’s only underachiever at the school.
The biggest warning signs hinting at slippage from this Bama team are in the areas of game management, penalties and defense. Fans are enthusiastically ripping coordinators Pete Golding and Bill O’Brien, but the problems seem to go higher. This just doesn’t resemble the buttoned-up machine we’re accustomed to seeing.
Saban’s in-game coaching decisions (3) have proven costly in both Alabama losses. He mismanaged the clock at the end against Tennessee—instead of taking it down to near-zero before attempting a go-ahead field goal, he left the Volunteers enough time for a final possession that resulted in a game-winning kick. And Saturday in Baton Rouge, Saban’s fourth-quarter decisions to chase points with a pair of two-point conversions backfired: both attempts failed, which meant Bama had to settle for a tying field goal in the final minute when it could have kicked the game-winner. Ultimately, the Tide lost in OT.
No coach gets every decision right, but to see Saban on the wrong side of those two is jarring. And perhaps telling.
In terms of penalties, Alabama can celebrate ending its streak of triple-digit penalty yardage in away games at four: they were flagged “only” nine times for 92 yards against LSU. The Tide is 125th nationally and last in the SEC in penalty yards per game—something a dominant team could perhaps get away with, but not one that is playing as many close games as Alabama is this season.
But perhaps the biggest departure of all from ‘Alabusiness As Usual’ is a defense that isn’t producing enough big plays—specifically, the extreme reduction in takeaways (4). From 2008 to ’21, the Tide averaged 25.2 takeaways per season. The total thus far this year: six. That’s last in the SEC and tied for 127th nationally, which is shocking for a Saban team. And LSU was the fourth opponent this season to not turn the ball over at all against Alabama, which is more than the previous three seasons combined.
This team was supposed to be elite defensively, with linebacker Will Anderson Jr. leading what was expected to be a vaunted pass rush and a secondary touted as one of the best in the nation. But the unit hasn’t done enough in the turnover department to turn close games into blowouts or losses into wins.
